ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN RELATION TO THE DOLLAR AND GOLD PRICES– INDIAN PERSPECTIVE.

As one of the most essential energy sources in our nation, crude oil is also one of the most important Imported goods. India imports around 84% of its total Crude oil needs. This clearly illustrates the extent to which fluctuations in crude oil prices effect our economy. The energy industry is one of the most volatile industries, and energy dependence is substantial. Additionally, crude oil is a significant commodity traded on the commodities market. Considering all of the aforementioned variables, fluctuations in the price of crude oil have a significant influence on the nation's economy as a whole, making crude oil forecasting a necessity. This study analysed data from 2000 to 2021 to develop a very accurate predictive model. In addition to crude oil prices, macroeconomic indicators such as gold prices and dollar exchange rates have been collected and evaluated using ARIMA model.