Research article

SCENARIOS OF THE IMPACT OF CO2 EMISSIONS RELATED TO ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ECUADOR

Flavio R. Arroyo M.1; Abel P. Remache C1; and Daniel A. Arroyo M.2

Online First: December 31, 2022


Current economic growth leads to scientific research and the development of new technologies to be concerned with mitigating CO2 emissions. This article analyzes the future scenarios of CO2 emissions, related to energy consumption and economic growth that could be presented in Ecuador by 2030 by designing a model based on Systems Dynamics. Greater economic activity can have a positive impact on the environment. The economic projections do not predict a hopeful panorama for Ecuador. Consequently, these will not be a factor that contributes to a decrease in emissions, so policies that improve the quality of life of Ecuadorians are necessary. Projections considering a 50% and 70% share of hydroelectric energy would result in the emission of 27.36 and 15.03 MtCO2, respectively. In Ecuador, sectors such as transportation or industry have tended to consume more fossil energy, which leads to the production of a more significant amount of emissions.

Keywords

system dynamics; climate change; energy policy.